Christmas Storm Thoughts

This is my first official forecast for the Christmas Storm. Forecast will likely change over the next 48 hours and could do so drastically depending on the model trends. View With Caution.

Getting Colder Today

This morning is warmer than it will be at the end of the day. We will have a great deal of clouds around today and temperatures will fall throughout the day into the upper 30's later this afternoon. Thursday will be cool but clear. Highs will climb to around 45 degrees with lows dipping into the upper 20's.
Well everyone seems to be excited and wondering about the Christmas System. At this time, models are beginning to come better aligned and I am becoming more confident in an accumulating snowfall for the Christmas Holiday. I will hold off from shouting any snow totals right now, but that may not be too far off as this approaching winter storm is gaining confidence this morning.

First Look At Christmas Forecast

A developing low pressure system later this week could bring rain followed by a wintry mix late Christmas Eve before changing over to snow on Christmas Day. This is still several days away, but there is potential of accumulating snowfall across the midwest, southeast, and mid atlantic as we head into the holiday weekend. Please stay tuned throughout the week for the very latest forecast.

Updated December 21, 2010 @ 6:30pm by Snowman

Snow on Christmas?

National Weather Service Nashville:

...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON CHRISTMAS IN
17 YEARS...

THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY NINE CHRISTMASES WITH MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF
SNOW SINCE SNOWFALL RECORD KEEPING BEGAN IN NASHVILLE BACK IN THE
WINTER OF 1884 AND 1885. THE LAST TIME MEASURABLE SNOW FELL ON
CHRISTMAS DAY IN NASHVILLE WAS IN 1993 WHEN THREE TENTHS OF AN
INCH WAS MEASURED. TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW FELL ON CHRISTMAS IN
2002. STATISTICALLY THERE IS ONLY A 7 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
SNOW ON ANY GIVEN CHRISTMAS. THE MOST SNOW EVER TO FALL ON
CHRISTMAS IN NASHVILLE IS 2.7 INCHES IN 1969.

A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE FROM EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...SPREADING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
ALABAMA AND NORTH GEORGIA CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT...COLDER AIR GETS
DRAWN IN BEHIND THE SURFACE SYSTEM...WITH SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE CHRISTMAS EVE AND CONTINUE INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THIS IS A FAVORED TRACK FOR SNOW
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...BUT SINCE THIS EVENT IS SEVERAL DAYS
AWAY...UNCERTAINITY STILL REMAINS IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
STORM SYSTEM AND SNOW AMOUNTS.



$$
BOYD

Rain Tonight and Tomorrow

Showers will enter the area tonight and last through tomorrow. The event should be all liquid as temperatures will be far above freezing. Another system moves into the area around Christmas. Rain and much colder weather can be expected around the holidays.

Light Snow Possible Overnight

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1042 PM CST FRI DEC 17 2010

TNZ056-058-060-061-075-077>080-093>095-181100-
PERRY-LEWIS-MAURY-MARSHALL-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-
WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOBELVILLE...HOHENWALD...COLUMBIA...
LEWISBURG...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...
ALTAMONT...SPENCER...WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
1042 PM CST FRI DEC 17 2010


...LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
OVERNIGHT...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE MID STATE FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT. MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE
WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL BE LESS
THAN ONE HALF INCH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND COLD
GROUND...ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DANGEROUS WITH SNOWFALL THAT
DOES OCCUR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINDEN...COLUMBIA...MCMINNVILLE TO SPENCER LINE. TO THE NORTH OF
THIS LINE...SNOW FLURRIES WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES SATURDAY MORNING AFTER
SUNRISE.

$$

21

Flurries Tonight

A few flurries will be flying out there tonight across Southern Tennessee and Northern Alabama but do not expect any accumulation or travel problems.

Icy Weather Wednesday

...MORE WINTRY WEATHER POSSIBLE MID WEEK...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACK EAST
TOWARD TENNESSEE ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE LOW BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WITH VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-STATE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT
ANY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF SLEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE
TRANSITION. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN CHANGING
THE PRECIPITATION TO ALL RAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE
WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NASHVILLE WHERE COLD AIR WILL
LINGER THE LONGEST. REGARDLESS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE MIDSTATE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE FOR WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE
LATEST.

-Nashville National Weather Service

More Wintry Weather

More wintry weather looks to arrive late tomorrow night into Wednesday. We could see a combination of Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain, and Rain. Details are still to be worked out but this system bears close watching over the next 24 hours as it approaches.

Snow and Cold

Our winter weather advisory across southern Middle Tennessee is in effect until Monday morning at 6am. Snow is slowly beginning to taper off to flurries but roadways will continue to be slick through the night. Check out the latest school closings under the closings tab. Cold weather in store for the next few days. A wind chill advisory is in effect until 12:00pm Monday. Please bundle up and be safe if headed outside over the next 24 hours.

Short Term Forecast

Snow Update

Just wanted to give a brief update on the upcoming winter weather. System still looks to be on track and no major changes in forecast at this time. I did revise the snow accumulation map and updated it under the winter center tab. Will continue to watch this system and make changes as needed. Please keep updated on this changing weather situation.

-Winter Weather Advisory in Effect for Most of Middle Tennessee.
-Winter Storm Warning in Effect for Northern Cumberland Plateau.
-Plan travels over next 48 hours carefully.

Rainy Afternoon Sets In

Radar Shot @ 1:00pm

Winter Weather To Visit Southern Tennessee

Well here we go...our first winter weather event of the season. Over the next three days we will be dealing with moderate rain, light snow, and bitter arctic cold with possible wind chills dipping to near zero. It is going to be a blustery winter weekend. Lets break it down into more specifics.

Latest Weather Advisories

Today: Clouds have already set in across the area. Later today, we will see rain overspread the area. Some of the rain could be moderate to heavy at times. Most of the rainfall today will come after noon. High temperatures today will be in the mid 50's.

Tonight: Tonight is when the fun will begin around here. Rain showers will continue before transitioning over to all snow sometime after midnight. The bulk of the moisture will be exiting the area as the cold air enters the Tennessee Valley. However, I do believe that we will see a brief burst of moderate snowfall on the back edge of the precipitation that could put down a quick dusting of snowfall. Regardless, with roadways wet and temperatures dropping sharply and quickly well below freezing, driving will become difficult after midnight tonight. The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the area due to this risk.

Sunday: Sunday will feature continued on and off snow showers and post frontal moisture wraps around the low pressure system. Snow will generally be light to moderate. Some area's of middle Tennessee could receive several inches of snowfall. Here in southern middle Tennessee I believe we will see some minor accumulations for those areas along Interstate 40. Check out the latest snow accumulation map under the Winter Center Tab. Do not expect highs on Sunday to rise above freezing. This will prolong the threat of dangerous roadways and again the NWS has posted a WWA to handle these issues. Low to mid teens can be expected for low temperatures on Sunday night. Winds will also be quite strong Sunday night possibly leading to wind chills that will meet advisory criteria.

Monday: The snow showers will clear out to the east on Monday but the cold will remain across our area with high temperatures struggling to make it into the mid 20's. Lows will again dip well into the lower teens.

Tuesday: Highs will remain below freezing but dry conditions.

I will continue to update snow accumulation map as well as forecast as needed this weekend. Please be careful if you have to travel this weekend.
-Snowman

Warmer Today, Still Chilly

We will see high temperatures today soar into the middle 40's!! :) Seriously, some pretty chilly weather is still in place across the Southern Tennessee area today. Dry weather is around until the weekend when we will see rain/snow. Look out for more updates today about this weekends system.

Weekend System

Well after watching this storm system slowly come into better view things are starting to become a little clearer this afternoon. First off...this system is still several days away so many things could happen between now and Sunday causing a drastic change in forecast. Secondly, there is potential for accumulating winter precipitation across southern Tennessee for Sunday through Monday. Though totals will likely be on the light side, this will be our first winter weather event of the year other than passing flurries earlier this week.

Again, this system will need to be monitored closely but do not expect a monster snow storm at this time. More updates as we get closer to the weekend.

Cold Weather Continues

Chilly With Flurries

It is quite cold outside today with a few flurries flying occasionally. Those should taper off later this afternoon into this evening. The week ahead is mainly dry with chilly weather. Temperatures will remain in the 30's for daytime highs most of this week. A slight warming trend is expected towards the end of the week with our next major weather system due in here sometime next weekend. Details are still murky on that system but it looks like rain showers, possibly mixed with snow at times. Something to keep an eye out for. Have a great Sunday!